Earlier tonight, we talked about using EA Sports’ “NCAA Basketball 2010” to predict the outcome of tonight’s NCAA Championship game. The sim picked favorite Duke to beat unlikely finalist Butler by a whopping 23 points, 84-61. Now that the game is over, we know that Duke did in fact defeat Butler, but by a much smaller margin in a lower scoring game. The two teams traded the lead for most of the game, with neither team ever leading by more than 6 points during the whole game. After a missed Butler three, Duke was declared the victor: The final score was 61-59. In short; “NCAA 2010” called the winner, but did not analyze and predict the outcome of the game by any stretch of the imagination.
What does this mean?
It means NCAA Basketball is not great at predicting live sporting events. Admittedly, college basketball, and March Madness in particular, is incredibly difficult to predict: Just ask all the experts that said that either Kansas or Kentucky would win the tournament.